There have been books written on this subject.
Here are my thoughts.
Firstly, I would say if you have your own way of working, and it works for you, then still to what you do. Each to their own. To be honest, I wouldn’t advise anyone to do anything without serious consideration of the pros and cons.
From my horse racing betting perspective I’m not keen on any betting staking system that’s just too elaborate. I think anyone can make something difficult. As the saying goes: ‘Keep it simple, stupid.’ Not sure if that should have a comma, as it looks like an insult. It was Kelly Johnson who coined that phrase. I think he worked on spy planes. If it works for him then perhaps it can work for you.
From my experience, it is easy to tie yourself up in knots with complex staking plans, irritated by the consequence of something that is meant to improve your lot and ultimately finances.
My problem with staking plans is how on Earth do you pick between the lines of a good and bad bet? I guess it is based on perceived value. The method may vary from one person to the next so I don’t want to surmise. I would think that most punters would consider a short priced favourite has more hope of winning than an outsider or speculative punt. Who knows? That’s the logic I would consider. But does this work well in practice? After all it is what puts the most money in your pocket rather than win percentage or anything else. I can appreciate why it’s a difficult thing to pin down and why some punters have a variety of strategies. If they have clear data to prove their point then good for them.
However, it makes me wonder if someone is so good a betting most effectively and efficiently then they should, perhaps, bet even more on those selections. Perhaps that’s what they are doing.
I have an issue with the accuracy of most punters selection of best bet compared with a lesser hope.
For example, some of the best bets I have had came from betting on a big prices winners. Let’s say, you have a 50/1 you give half a chance. What do you bet? A fraction of that you would on a 6/4 shot? Is the reality of the winning hope based on the price or assessment of the horse?
Can you pick between the lines?
I don’t think so. In fact, I would suggest that most punters would find more success if they bet level stake across the board. You may think that is a ridiculous idea and to be fair it does depend on your style of betting. That’s why you need to review your selections to have a better idea. It may be a positive to write a diary to consider the thought process.
I’ve found that the best money I have ever made comes from betting level stake when a giant priced winner pops up. It seems much to easy to conclude you should bet more on a favourite and less on an outsider. Perhaps that thought process itself should be questioned. Because I think it lacks logic or understanding.
How many times have those half hopes won at big odds and that banker failed miserably?
Assess your staking strategy by reviewing how you would have fared if betting level stake. If the profits were bigger then it might be a worthwhile option. Also, you save a lot of time and irritation by questioning how much to bet on each selection. It seems an approach which creates problems and builds annoyance. When you have a winner you will be saying: ‘I wish I had put more on that!’ When you have a loser you will be saying: ‘I wish I had put less on that!’
Level stake you say: ‘It is what it is.’
There’s a lot to be said for keeping it simple, stupid.
Assess your data so you’re not the fool.
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